New Patriotic Party (NPP) 2028 flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, currently holds the upper hand against seven potential presidential contenders of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), according to a new nationwide voter perception survey by the Africa Policy Lens (APL).
The survey, conducted between July 27 and August 7, 2026 puts Dr Bawumia ahead in all seven hypothetical head-to-head contests tested, with his support ranging from 45.7 per cent to 49.9 per cent.
The findings, however, also show that the 2028 presidential race remains fluid, with significant proportions of voters undecided in several of the match-ups. The survey involved 16,963 respondents drawn from all 276 constituencies across Ghana’s 16 regions.
APL said the face-to-face exercise was designed to provide a nationally representative snapshot of voter sentiment, using a multistage probability sampling approach. Dr Bawumia’s closest contests are against NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah and Finance Minister, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson.
In a hypothetical contest with Asiedu Nketiah, Dr Bawumia attracts 45.8 per cent support, against 42.4 per cent for the NDC contender. Some 7.2 per cent of respondents were undecided. The margin is similarly tight against Dr Ato Forson, with Dr Bawumia polling 45.7 per cent compared with 42.8 per cent for the Finance Minister. Another 7.5 per cent were undecided.
The figures suggest that, despite leading both hypothetical contests, Dr Bawumia’s advantage over the two NDC figures is relatively modest and could be vulnerable to shifts in voter preference as the election approaches.
Wider margins against other NDC hopefuls
The survey records a wider advantage for Dr Bawumia in contests involving the current Chief of Staff, Dr Julius Debrah, Vice President Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang, Minister for Agriculture, Eric Opoku and former University for Professional Studies, Accra (UPSA) Vice Chancellor, Prof Joshua Alabi.
Against Dr Debrah, Dr Bawumia receives 48.4 per cent, compared with 37.9 per cent for his NDC opponent. He leads Prof Jane Opoku-Agyemang by 47.4 per cent to 40.2 per cent. The biggest margins are recorded against Prof Alabi and Eric Opoku. Dr Bawumia polls 49.9 per cent against Prof Alabi’s 34.4 per cent, while he records 49.8 per cent against Opoku’s 33.9 per cent. In the contest with Minister for Education, Haruna Iddrisu, Dr Bawumia leads by 45.9 per cent to 41.5 per cent.
APL said the results indicate that Dr Bawumia’s support is not restricted to a single regional stronghold, claiming that he wins between nine and 11 of Ghana’s 16 regions in the different hypothetical contests.
The report does not, however, present the detailed regional figures in the material accompanying the national results.
Character, jobs top voters’ priorities
Beyond candidate preferences, the APL survey sought to establish what voters consider the most important qualities in Ghana’s next President. Honesty and integrity emerged as the leading priority, followed by the ability to create jobs and competence in managing the economy. The findings point to a potential 2028 contest in which questions of personal credibility and economic performance could weigh heavily on voters.
For Dr Bawumia, who has campaigned extensively on his economic credentials, the results could provide an early indication of how voters are assessing his claim to national leadership. APL was careful to stress that the survey should not be interpreted as a forecast of the 2028 election outcome.
The research organisation said voter preferences could change significantly as political, economic and social conditions evolve and as prospective candidates are formally selected, campaigns take shape and parties put their records before the electorate.
Source: thechronicle.com.gh
